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FEC Articles Express: 2017 June Issue
July 20, 2017

Frontiers of Economics in China (FEC)

2017 June Issue (Free Full-Text Download)

Kevin X. D. Huang, Guoqiang Tian, Yibo Yang

China under Uncertainty: Outlook, Counterfactual and Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation—A Summary of Annual Report (2016–2017)

Peter Hall

A Shift to Isolationism?

Lin Cheng, Shen Zhang

The Spread of Western Economics in China: Features and Influence (1840–1949)

Zongye Huang

Structural Transformation under Trade Imbalances: The Case of the Postwar US

Dihai Wang, Gaowang Wang, Heng-fu Zou

Competitive Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Production Loans

Qi Deng, Zhong-guo Zhou

IPO Pricing Efficiency in China: A ChiNext Board Focus

Jiangli Zhu, Zilian Li

Inequality and Crime in China

China under Uncertainty:

Outlook, Counterfactual and Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation

—A Summary of Annual Report (2016–2017)

Kevin X. D. Huang

Vanderbilt University, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Guoqiang Tian

Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Texas A&M University

Yibo Yang

Shanghai University of Finance and Economics


China’s macroeconomy is surrounded by increased uncertainties while facing persistent downward pressures entering year 2017. Major external challenges are imposed by the chaotic political climate and disorderly retreat from globalization of the US accompanied with the impending FED rate hikes, which may trigger a destructive trade war and exert pressures on RMB depreciation and capital flight. Remaining ingrained in major internal challenges are the gridlock risks accumulated from excessive financialization of real estate sector and swelling housing market bubbles amid escalating debt levels, and more fundamentally, the continued off-real-to-virtual movement in the general economy and ascendancy of government over market in resource allocation. Based on IAR-CMM model, which takes into account both cyclical and secular factors, the baseline real GDP growth rate is projected to be 6.5% in 2017 (6.13% using more reliable instead of official data). Counterfactual analyses and policy simulations are also conducted to highlight the convoluted uncertainties surrounding China’s macroeconomy. Through the lens of these analyses, we identify a root cause of the weak outlook as the persistently distorted economic structure due to procrastination in reforms of the institutions and governance, which not only impairs China’s growth potential but also limits the power of its recent stimulating policies while exacerbating their side effects. Key to successful economic restructuring in the face of adversely evolving demographics are market-oriented reforms, with well-designed strategies to balance short-term stabilization and long-run development. Such reforms should hold center stage in China’s transition towards a modern free market economy and regulatory state.

A Shift to Isolationism?

Peter Hall

Vice President and Chief Economist

Export Development Canada


Developments over the past year have led to serious, widespread concern that the world could be returning to a more isolationist stance. It is perhaps the greatest threat ever levelled at the post-war globalization movement and all of its supporting architecture. This paper argues that due to the unusual nature of the last business cycle, the general public has become impatient with the existing economic and in particular, international trade architecture. It also points out that its typical defenders are unsure of how to do so. In response, what is suggested is that logic puts definite limits on how much change is actually likely to occur, and if so, which strategic responses are most appropriate.

The Spread of Western Economics in China: Features and Influence (1840—1949)

Lin Cheng, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Shen Zhang, Shanghai Academy of Social Science


The spread of Western economics in modern China is a content-rich historical event which has taken more than a century. A complete understanding of this event depends on the analysis and summary of its features. This paper suggests that the spread of Western economics in modern China exhibits five main features: openness, periodicity, applicability, localization and limitation. Openness reflects the active attitude of Chinese scholars to learning and propagating Western economics. Periodicity reflects the changes in its effectiveness and focus over time. Applicability reflects its goal of promoting the development of Chinese economics and providing policy applications for China’s economic growth. Localization of Western economic theories in China follows the trend of selected introduction and modification according to local situations. And limitation is inevitable because of the many difficulties facing the spread of Western economics during early modern times. Furthermore, this spread has a profound impact on China which is embodied in its features: it promotes the establishment of Chinese modern economics, provides appropriate examples for the modernization and evolution of Chinese society, and promotes transformation of the traditional economic system in China.

About the journal:

Frontiers of Economics in China (FEC) is a quarterly peer-reviewed journal edited by Institute for Advanced Research, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, and published by Higher Education Press.  Established in 2006 and with Guoqiang Tian as the Editor, the journal has a strong Editorial Advisory Board (with several Nobel Prize winners as board members), as well as a dedicated Co-Editors’ team and an Editorial Board comprised of leading overseas and domestic Chinese economists.

Issued quarterly and distributed worldwide, the FEC is available both online and in hard-copy.  With more than 600 institutional subscribers worldwide and indexed in more than 10 databases including ESCI, EconLit, RePEc and SCOPUS, the journal was ranked as one of “The Highest International Impact Academic Journals of China” in 2016.

The FEC welcomes submissions of theoretical and empirical papers from all fields of economics, particularly those with an emphasis on the Chinese economy and other emerging, developing or transition economies.  While the journal is primarily interested in original research papers, it also welcomes submissions of opinion articles, literature surveys, and book reviews.  Full-text papers are free for download at:

Editor: Guoqiang Tian, Texas A&M University; Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Executive Editor: Zhiqi Chen, Carleton University


Chunrong Ai, University of Florida

Kevin X.D. Huang, Vanderbilt University

Neng Wang, Columbia University

James Wen, Trinity College, USA

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