【主题】The Factor Structure of Disagreement (joint with Ed Herbst)
【报告人】Fabian Winkler（美国联邦储蓄委员会经济学家）
【时间】3月24日（星期三）10:00-11:30 a.m.
【参会链接】 https://zoom.com.cn/j/65037561974 密码：110699
【语言】英文
【摘要】We estimate a three-dimensional dynamic factor model on individual forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters using full-information Bayesian methods. The factors extract the most important dimensions along which disagreement comoves across variables. We interpret our results through a general semi-structural model where heterogeneous expectations arise from dispersed information. Up until the Great Moderation, disagreement about the supply side of the economy dominates, while in recent decades and particularly during the Great Recession, disagreement about the demand side has become more important. Disagreement about monetary policy shocks seems to play a minor role in the data. Our findings can serve to discipline structural models of heterogeneous expectations.
